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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to NYG 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 83-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model