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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.69 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT +0.69 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model