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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 59

New York Giants 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(7:59) (Punt formation) 29-N.Berhe up the middle to NYG 43 for 2 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis). Direct snap to N.Berhe.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.52 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model