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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to MIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model