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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to LA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 10-P.Cooper to LA 26 for -1 yards (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model