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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to MIN 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model