Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

(12:45) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to MIN 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-83-J.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP

KICK -0.98 EP

33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
67% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model