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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(8:25) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to MIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.46 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP