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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 14

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at MIN 21 for -7 yards (90-T.Bower).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +4.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.47 EP