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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to NE 13, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.01 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model