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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 10 at the 47
Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New England Patriots 24
What Actually Happened
(11:10) 7-M.King punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.62 EP
-
31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.68 EP
- 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
KICK
-0.89 EP
- 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
- 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
