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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 8 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at NE 28 for 10 yards (23-P.Chung). New England challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP