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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 70

New England Patriots 33 – Las Vegas Raiders 8

What Actually Happened

(:26) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to LV 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.25 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -1.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model