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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(14:24) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.85 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model