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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 61 yards to PHI 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-33-C.Awuzie.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model