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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 86

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(10:53) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 61 yards to DAL 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-24-C.Graham.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.67 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 86, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model