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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.38 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model