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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 15

What Actually Happened

(8:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 29 yards to PHI 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model