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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 23

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to PHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP