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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 17

Philadelphia Eagles 23 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(12:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model