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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 37

What Actually Happened

(7:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Williams INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at PHI -5. Touchback. PENALTY on PHI-91-F.Cox, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 20.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model