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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.35 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 9, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model