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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-T.Watt), Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.15 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model