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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to PIT 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 30 for 7 yards (13-T.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.65 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model