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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model