Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(1:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to PIT 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.87 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model