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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 87

Tennessee Titans 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(13:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to PIT 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 84-A.Brown to PIT 49 for 16 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.71 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model