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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 37 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.35 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP