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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 40

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 82-D.Walker INTERCEPTED by 28-S.Davis at PIT 37. 28-S.Davis to TEN 22 for 41 yards (13-T.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.91 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.36 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model