Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

(1:30) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to TEN 23, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 33 for 10 yards (31-M.Hilton, 90-T.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model