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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 83

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to BUF 43, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate to KC 44 for 13 yards (80-J.Chesson).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.54 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 83, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP