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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model