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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to KC 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.92 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -3.29 EP
KICK -2.25 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model