Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to BUF 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 11, and recovers at BUF 15. 15-B.Tate to BUF 15 for no gain (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.94 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model