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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 88

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to BUF 34, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate to BUF 48 for 14 yards (42-A.Sherman). PENALTY on BUF-24-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.09 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 88, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model