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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 78

Buffalo Bills 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to KC 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.81 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model