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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model