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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to KC 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 19 for 5 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.97 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP