Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(7:05) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to KC 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 64, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model