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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 60

New York Jets 3 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to CAR 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 23 for 14 yards (32-J.Burris; 54-B.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model