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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 9 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to NYJ 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 10 for -7 yards (54-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.68 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 28, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP