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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Jets 3 – Carolina Panthers 12

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to CAR 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-K.Clay to CAR 24 for 5 yards (83-E.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.85 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model