Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 12 – New York Jets 10

(11:26) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to NYJ 40, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.83 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model