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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 77

New York Jets 20 – Carolina Panthers 26

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to CAR 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-K.Clay for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model