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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 27

Carolina Panthers 32 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(:25) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.48 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model