4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to GB 5, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.53 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP