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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:46) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 48 yards to PIT 16, Center-61-B.Goode. 84-A.Brown to PIT 23 for 7 yards (35-J.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.58 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP