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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to GB 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model