Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 46 yards to PIT 35, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 84-A.Brown. PENALTY on GB-22-A.Ripkowski, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model