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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 85-X.Grimble for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.81 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model